Post by supermac on Dec 14, 2012 15:57:52 GMT 1
First off, I should start by saying that I'm not particularly concerned about being relegated this season...the lads have certainly made a mess of their first pass through the fixtures, but I do believe there's too much talent and what have you to not earn enough points on the return legs through the rest of the year that we don't finish ahead of Reading, Southampton, QPR, Sunderland, Villa, and probably even Wigan (LOFTY GOALS!!). Plus, we still have Gabby Obertan to light the way forward...
Nevertheless, I think everyone realizes it's going to be a tough stretch between now and when we get eliminated from the FA Cup by Brighton again on 5 January (at least they have a pretty stadium), but I needed to do an exercise so I don't completely panic when I examine the table on the morning of 3 January. Maybe this will help you, too (please note: I'm TERRIBLE at predictions, so this is going to be WAY off). Here's the thing...regardless of how difficult our next 5 matches are, the teams below us are really not good...I did this exercise fully thinking that Newcastle would show in 18th by the time I was done...but it's just as likely that they'll have widened the gap that presently exists between them and 18th...see:
Current Table:
14. Newcastle United (17, -5)
15. Sunderland (16, -4)
16. Southampton (15, -10)
17. Aston Villa (15, -11)
18. Wigan (15, -13)
19. Reading (9, -12)
20. QPR (7, -16)
Fixtures/Predictions thru 2 January:
Newcastle United: Man City (L), QPR (W...God Willing), @ Man Utd (L), @ Arsenal (D), Everton (L)
Sunderland: @ Man Utd (L), @ Southampton (D), Man City (L), Spurs (L), @ Liverpool (L)
Southampton: Sunderland (D), @ Fulahm (L), @ Stoke (L), Arsenal (L)
Aston Villa: @ Liverpool (L), @ Chelsea (L), Spurs (L), Wigan (W), @ Swansea (L)
Wigan: @ Norwich (L), Arsenal (W), @ Everton (L), @ Villa (L), Man Utd (D)...[laugh all you'd like, but remember we're talking about Wigan, logic need not apply]
Reading: Arsenal (L), @ Man City (L), Swansea (L), West Ham (W), @ Spurs (L)
QPR: Fulham (D), @ Newcastle (L), West Brom (L), Liverpool (W), @ Chelsea (L)
Table, 3 January:
14. Newcastle (21)
15. Wigan (19)
16. Aston Villa (18)
17. Sunderland (17)
18. Southampton (16)
19. Reading (12)
20. QPR (11)
Not saying it's perfect, but if NUFC pick up those 4 points from 5 matches (still horrendous from a morale standpoint, given the past 6 results), it's not like those below them have a great opportunity to pick up points, and Newcastle certainly has just a tough a run of fixtures as anybody (though I don't exactly envy Sunderland or Reading...which, I suppose, has nothing to do with their upcoming matches, in the end)...
So while it's clearly not the season any of us have hoped for so far, it may not be quite as doom and gloom as the picture some (not necessarily on this board, just in general) are painting...
Nevertheless, I think everyone realizes it's going to be a tough stretch between now and when we get eliminated from the FA Cup by Brighton again on 5 January (at least they have a pretty stadium), but I needed to do an exercise so I don't completely panic when I examine the table on the morning of 3 January. Maybe this will help you, too (please note: I'm TERRIBLE at predictions, so this is going to be WAY off). Here's the thing...regardless of how difficult our next 5 matches are, the teams below us are really not good...I did this exercise fully thinking that Newcastle would show in 18th by the time I was done...but it's just as likely that they'll have widened the gap that presently exists between them and 18th...see:
Current Table:
14. Newcastle United (17, -5)
15. Sunderland (16, -4)
16. Southampton (15, -10)
17. Aston Villa (15, -11)
18. Wigan (15, -13)
19. Reading (9, -12)
20. QPR (7, -16)
Fixtures/Predictions thru 2 January:
Newcastle United: Man City (L), QPR (W...God Willing), @ Man Utd (L), @ Arsenal (D), Everton (L)
Sunderland: @ Man Utd (L), @ Southampton (D), Man City (L), Spurs (L), @ Liverpool (L)
Southampton: Sunderland (D), @ Fulahm (L), @ Stoke (L), Arsenal (L)
Aston Villa: @ Liverpool (L), @ Chelsea (L), Spurs (L), Wigan (W), @ Swansea (L)
Wigan: @ Norwich (L), Arsenal (W), @ Everton (L), @ Villa (L), Man Utd (D)...[laugh all you'd like, but remember we're talking about Wigan, logic need not apply]
Reading: Arsenal (L), @ Man City (L), Swansea (L), West Ham (W), @ Spurs (L)
QPR: Fulham (D), @ Newcastle (L), West Brom (L), Liverpool (W), @ Chelsea (L)
Table, 3 January:
14. Newcastle (21)
15. Wigan (19)
16. Aston Villa (18)
17. Sunderland (17)
18. Southampton (16)
19. Reading (12)
20. QPR (11)
Not saying it's perfect, but if NUFC pick up those 4 points from 5 matches (still horrendous from a morale standpoint, given the past 6 results), it's not like those below them have a great opportunity to pick up points, and Newcastle certainly has just a tough a run of fixtures as anybody (though I don't exactly envy Sunderland or Reading...which, I suppose, has nothing to do with their upcoming matches, in the end)...
So while it's clearly not the season any of us have hoped for so far, it may not be quite as doom and gloom as the picture some (not necessarily on this board, just in general) are painting...
